Did NBC skipping on ‘Sixth Gun’ kill the current speculation boom?

For the past several months there has been a huge boom in books coming out each week, or books that were recently published, that would shoot up quickly in price. The comic book speculation market had been booming. New books like ‘Peter Pannzerfaust’ 7-9, ‘Star Wars’ #1 and many others could be picked up off the shelves and flipped. Older recent books like ‘The Test’, ‘Rachel Rising’, ‘The Strain’, and ‘Sixth Gun’ shot up due to movie or tv deals. But in the past two weeks, things have quieted down.

I know personally, my sales have been down 70% week to week since the announcement that NBC passed on ‘The Sixth Gun’ and it is not just on that title alone. The catalyst for this down turn seems to correlate with the announcement. Of course prices quickly dropped on ‘The Sixth Gun’ as a reaction, but to see overall new modern books go off the edge is disconcerting. The bigger message boards are chattering about the drop off of modern books. Books that would have popped in the past, seem to not be moving at all. If you are a small time guy like me who picks up stock as he goes along, it’s not to bad, but for the bigger eBay sellers, who preorder hundreds of copies in advance, it could be devastating.

So, has the market finally started producing ‘bag holders’? Has the new comic market taken a down turn, and if so is it really a result of NBC passing on ‘Sixth Gun’? Or are we simply seeing the sales lull of the summer?

Now, I am not being an alarmist and saying the sky is falling, there are still plenty of recent books that are commanding top dollar, even if they are off their market highs. But I have noticed message board talks of the market being off in all sectors, including golden and silver age.

Tell us what you think. Please feel free to comment here or on our facebook site.

32 thoughts on “Did NBC skipping on ‘Sixth Gun’ kill the current speculation boom?”

  1. I’m not a ‘true’ speculator (ie: I genuinely want to read everything I buy, sell if it happens to get hot/don’t buy multiples, etc) but I usually do a couple hundred bucks in sales a month and I can tell you my stuff has totally dropped off. My sales in the past 6 weeks are like $50-75. It kinda sucks because I was at a point where the hobby was pretty much paying for itself.

  2. It is noticeable that sales are down
    but I also think it ties in directly to spring. Many sellers believe ebay sales specifically drop a lot once April hits due to better weather and people spend less time shopping online during the summer months.
    Once people started realizing that every Image title went up in value retailers finally upped their orders dramatically in March/April making many more copies available and less likely for these books to go up in value. I figure by July retailers will drop their numbers down to more realistic sales and potentially summer releases July/Aug/Sept could have smaller orders and potentially be more valuable in the winter as long as the titles are good of course.
    Speculating can be dangerous because if EVERYBODY speculates on the same book then the odds of it going up in value are very hard. Jupiters Legacy #1 as you mentioned had huge orders at 105,000 copies making it pretty hard for that book to go up in value though surprisingly there is a 2nd printing so it did sell out.
    It is a shame that Sixth Gun fell but I think maybe that is to be expected – once people realize it CANNOT become the next Walking Dead there is not much incentive for new readers to want to spend $100.00 per issue just to read it.

  3. I do a little of both. I read everything I buy, I keep. Copy of all my flip books for myself. I usually do several hundred dollars a month, usually shy of a thousand in sales (that does not take into account fees and what I paid for the books.) but I have seen a drop off of nearly 70% week over week. That is pretty big. Like I said inhe post, I keep a supply of selling books on hand, but since I m near so many retailers, I keep books in hold (I know where the books are and in which store) and donor have to buy the extra. Opines until I sell through my initial run. I have seen a drop in the variant sales too, which is odd. New variants have been a key player in my sales and they have dropped off too. Now with all that being said, I am not saying the boom is over, or that it is the demise of the Sixth Gun being passed overs fault, but I have seen many people on the boards of the different web sites I monitor state this.

    And the Regular Show sells out,so we have to see if prices go upon this one.

  4. Sorry about the grammar and spelling on that one, some times the iPad hates my fingers. People have compared the last year to the 90’s boom. With variants, enhanced covers, and even some of the 90’s books being around again I can see why, I just worry that I had a decade of good sales in the 90’s and the current boom has really been 2 years tops.

  5. I have only recently returned to the hobby and so the idea of the pursuit for high value modern comics does remind me of the 90s. Is the drop-off in speculative trading just a breather as folks take a wait and see stance, or are folks abandoning comics? I would hedge on the former. For small, bit collectors like myself, I see this as an opportunity to take an affordable risk and stock up for the long haul. For flippers, I can understand how risky the moment appears.

    1. Good question. I don’t think it scared anyone out of the hobby, just may have shocked some people out of the speculations game. With my current inventory (Sixth Gun, Rachel Rising, Helheim, Variants) as it it, I could sell them at cover and still be way ahead of the game.

      I started my current run on eBay with $20. I bought some books and flipped them, asking 3x what I had put out. Now grow that exponentially with each week. I was pulling in hundreds of dollars a week. And then it dried up. Like a junkie, i was wondering if this was the end of the road. I went from doing 25-30 packages a week to 5. Now I do three things with my comic book sales money. 1. Buy more comics for my collection (my weeklies) 2. Buy more to flip (inventory) 3. Save a percentage and give it to my wife for our upcoming baby.

      I’d just hate to see all that go away.

  6. I would like to do a poll here and find out how many people have been flipping books for over a year on ebay. I still believe that SPRING is the main reason why sales have dropped lately.
    But the other problem is that we have a forum here of a bunch of people speculating on the same books and thinking this will last. Once there are 500 speculators on the same book then the book HAS NO CHANCE of going up in value. Supply and demand. The only books that will go up greatly in value are the ones that all the speculators missed. How many of you picked up Injustice Gods Among Us #1 1st print for example. Truly one of the most valuable comics of 2013 but ONLY because all the speculators didnt buy 100 copies each of this one. We all missed the boat. Panzerfaust #9 hit $30 cause nobody had any but #10 everybody bought multiples and its worthless ! The market may have peaked for a while as we need some of the speculators to drop out of the race and then it will be easier for a smaller number to make money with.
    Uber is the most recent example of a book which I find it hard to tell if its a hot book or just all the speculators want it to be hot. Nearly every new copy is listed at least at $8.00 a copy instantly – so does that mean buyers want to pay $8.00 for it OR is it that the speculators are not giving anyone a chance to buy cheaper and just decided thats what they want.
    I sold numerous copies of Nowhere Men #4 as a pre-release at $11.99 each. Now that its out and everyone hoarded it I can’t even give away copies.
    The smartest thing you can do when speculating is to look at who else is selling the same book on ebay and what are they charging.

    1. I think I had 4 copies of Injustice #1. Would have to go back and see what I ended up selling. But I agree, as usual, it would be good that some people drop out of the speculation game to free up some elbow room. Peter Panzerfaust had a nice small print run and in some stores I frequent I was the only guy buying copies. I am still getting copies of 3-7 first prints out of some of the stores. Issue 10 seemed to be the one that stores upped their orders for as well, another reason why the book has not sold on the secondary market as well. I would imagine at this point we will see a Walking Dead effect on subsequent issues with each one being ordered more and more heavily.

  7. I sold a Sixth Gun #1 for $92.00 today on ebay and this is even after weeks of the tv show being cancelled. The title is NOT dead its just simply going to bring in about 1/2 of what it used to. Still a great title, scarce – low print runs – great to collect and recommended for everyone.

    1. No it’s not dead. I didn’t say it was. But trading levels have dropped off significantly and more so since the announcement the show was not being picked up. Number 1 still sells for a premium but the subsequent books have fell off to the point where there are almost as many unsold copies in ebay as there are sold copies. Checking Lyria for example. The most watched, highest price, and comics to watch lists all used to have Sixth Gun issues in it. After the announcement I have not seen Sixth Gun on the list.

      1. Lyria is an interesting site – do you they only cover “auctions” or do they ever show “buy it now” listings. I noticed somebody selling a Sixth Gun #1-5 today for $250.00 with bids – so not too bad. I sold mine less than that to make sure I did not get stuck with them IF prices continued to drop but it looks to me like they have stabilized.

  8. Good article. I recognize some of the users here from other sites, so its good to see you guys. *cheers* What are your thoughts on Nowhere Men? Did this comic cool down? Should we hold or sell? Mind Mgmt? Hold and wait for the show. Saga? The Manhattan projects. Thanks!

    1. Hey welcome and thanks for stopping by. There is a natural ebb and flow to comic book prices. When a book starts getting hot the prices shoot up Nowhere Men is a prime example. More people start trying to get in. #1&2 were selling for a good premium by the time 3 came out. People had picked the shelves clean on the first prints by then and they started to appear more on eBay. The added inventory brought prices down. The book is still hot, but the law of supply and demand brought down prices. Same with Saga, Manhattan Projects, Rachel Rising, and Mind Mgmt. The books haven’t cooled off, as more people are reading them now then at the beginning, prices have dropped for now. What I think will happen is the prices will continue flat for a little while and gradually rise as less issues are traded on ebay. It’s a wait and see thing.

      Now I have sold heavily on all the books. But at the same time these are all books on my monthly pull that I read. So while I sold copies (I do not like to hold a lot of inventory, I flip and cash out as I find them) I still have copies in my personal collection and keep a few to sell later if the prices rise again.

      I hope that answers your questions.

      1. And in a side note, I do not think the speculation market is dead. As Hoknes said, everyone is speculating on the same new books and snatching them up. While it has been quiet, we do not know what the next recent hot book will be not do we truly know what the next hot new book will be. Hopefully the correction will make some of the smallest guys reconsider as well as the bigger guys from buying so many copies to sell. The next hot book will catch everyone by surprise.

        But in support of the theory that NBC passing in Sixth Gun had an effect, Lyria shows that the amount of comics for sale on eBay took a 10% dip about the same time the announcement came out. Of course this will change when eBay puts out its next free listing promo later this month.

  9. That does answer my question. Thank you. I suppose the real question is, what’s the status of REVIVAL? I mean…is NBC still doing the tv show? If that’s the case, shouldn’t we hold onto the issues and sell when the show peaks? That’s my impression. I’m tempted to sell them now because it fell flat, but I think I’ll wait. What do you all think?

    1. I was under the impression that ABC was doing a show similar to ‘Revival’ but called “Returned.’ In the same way that the show ‘Once Upon A Time’ is essentially ‘Fables’ but not called that or based off it. I love ‘Revival’ I think it can continue to grow as the story unfolds.

    2. There was some buzz at the end of 2012 that NBC had optioned ‘Revival’ and that it was being done by the guys who bring us ‘The Walking Dead’ but I have not seen or heard anything other than the ‘Returned’ was coming to ABC.

  10. Yes, I was going by the news in November 2012 about NBC doing a show by the walking dead producers. However, I did not hear about ABC doing a show similiar called returned. If this is the case, I may reconsider and start selling now. Decisions, decisions, decisions…

    When will the free ebay listing weekend occur and is there a limit? I have some back issues I can separate with for now. Thanks!

    1. I am unsure when they are going to do it. They usually do it around the middle of the month, or near the end into the next month. It is usually 5k-50k listings. I hope one is coming up I have burned through my 50 free ones early this month as I had a huge inventory of books to move. I am planning on trying to downsize some of my 50,000 books and will be off work for a few weeks so I may be able to get a large portion listed.

      Do you have extra’s of Revival? or are you selling your personal collection copies? I am still holding mine as I love the series, but did recently get and sell a 1st print #1.

  11. I have personal and extras of originals. Some phantom and 3rd eye variants. Single copies of the variants though.

  12. Hey guys…I got a slight problem….

    So, I found a really good comic that is at least 9.6+. Maybe even a 9.8. However, it’s not officially graded yet…

    The good news is, I bought it signed by the writer and artist…

    The bad news is, there was no COA…

    So, I obviously want to submit this for a qualified grade, but understand I can’t authenticate the signature. I’m okay with that and will leave it to the eye of the beholder. But what grading company will take it and grade it without the signature verification?

    PLEASE HELP! :-D. Thanks!

  13. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Peter-Panzerfaust-1×2-signed-issues-2-3-4-included-/281110884970?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item417383b26a&nma=true&si=5C%252B07eDxSmqryUIrxF13af6UZ9A%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

    What do you think? Good deal I thought. Comics are probably at least a 9.6+, so I’m very happy with that. But the signatures can’t be authenticated. So, for the sake of investing – what do you think I should do? PGX or CGC? I’m really torn here.

    Also, to be fair – I do have other signed Peter Panzerfaust c2e2 exclusives that could not be authenticated but are signed. Same problem. So…

    I’m thinking of holding onto them in my PC…once that tv show catches on, I may sell 1x or 2x…

    Please help :-).

  14. Also, I do have a 3rd “unsigned” #1, which I’d consider NM 9.8 with perfect edges, except one thing…there is a printing flaw with one of the 2nd staples…

    What I mean is, if you look so ever closely, you can see a slight tear from one of the staple holes (imagine how small the staple hole is), so it’s almost undetectable – but by definition of tear, I’m thinking it brings it down to VF+, but I thought that maybe too harsh. Again, it’s really nothing. Your thoughts?

    1. It would depend on if there are any other flaws. Usually I go down a grade for every major flaw. What is the size of the tear? I personally would list it as vf or better and explain the flaw. I tend to be more conservative in my grading.

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