Deadpool #6 Market Analysis

Hey CHU, DrunkWooky checking in. Deadpool #6 is out tomorrow and as Anthony had in his picks of the week, it features the first appearance of Deadpool 2099. The interesting thing about the book is it is sold out at Diamond. It is also now sold out at Midtown and TFAW.
With this being said, I crunched the Comichron sales numbers for the new Deadpool series today.
#1 sold 180,565
Extrapolating the percentage decrease between issues (an average if 27.76% loss of sales between each issue with obvious slowing in that drop ( 49.1% between 1 and 2, 21.4% between 2 and 3, 12.8% between 3 and 4)) I figured that #5 probably sold around 45,500- 52,300 (45,618 is what I came up with before buffering for the likely skewing of the 49.1% sales drop off from issue #1)
I estimated that tomorrow’s Deadpool #6 will be between a high of 43,300 and a low of 32,900 (32,955 was my exact figured based on average percentage sales drop including drop between issues 1 and 2). These are relatively low numbers for a potential heater of a first appearance (Deadpool 2099).
To put this in perspective, Edge of Spider-Verse #2 (First Appearance of Spider-Gwen) sold 54,415 copies in September 2014 according to Comicchron. Not saying Deadpool 2099 will end up like Spider-Gwen, however, Deadpool characters, especially female Deadpools, have done well on the secondary market.

28 thoughts on “Deadpool #6 Market Analysis”

  1. Just because there was a percentage drop in copies from issue to issue does not mean you can extrapolate that out indefinitely. This book may well see a bump in it’s print run over issue #5 as this book was on a lot of people’s radars for a while.

    1. That is true.
      It’s why I didn’t feel comfortable with a 49.1% drop between # 1 and #2 skewing the mean. Series tend to “settle” at some point. That is, they either settle or get canceled (haha).
      However, based on anecdotal evidence such as what Jesus pointed out below, I felt OK concluding that this issue was not going to differ from the trend down.
      For example, I think #7, a giant size anniversary issue will definitely see s bump in sales. The cover for this issue #6 came out pretty late in the game, though.

      1. Both shops I frequent didn’t order a ton of these. One was actually only had around a dozen on the shelf with about half of them with nasty creases or scuffed up corners near the spine (like white scuff marks, some issue with rollers or something most likely).

  2. From what my comic shop told me was that issue 6, not a lot of people ordered them. But once the news was out about 4 new 1st appearance, that’s when people started to call and wanted 6- 10 copies. That’s when he made the first come first serve and 1 per costumer deal

  3. So aside from the regular cover and that variant there’s no other covers right? No 1:25 or anything like that yeah? Can’t find any so I figured I’d ask.

    1. Just the regular 2099 throw back and the Koblish secret comic variant. Both of which are fully orderable (no incentives).

  4. sounds like the flop that was Justice League 3001 #5 first app of Harley Quinn 3001. I cant even sell those at cover.

    1. I never got in on the Justice League 3001 thing. There were other versions of Harley, including bombshells that didn’t do anything. This issue is selling out and is sold out at Diamond. DC books rarely sell out and that’s why you can’t move them. Diamond still has a supply.
      Sent from my iPhone

      1. I tend to pass over DC books and specs. They don’t seem to last or hold as long. Maybe down the road they might but I never find myself buying multiple copies of them.

        1. Marvel short prints their books as they are ordered blind. Marvel books are ordered more in advance so you don’t have all the data back from previous sales. So for example Deadpool 6 stores didn’t really have the sales data back from issue 1 yet when they were placing their orders. So they tend to order less, less are printed, less chance for reorder and more chance of a sellout. DC does not do this and the books don’t get the heat and don’t sell out. At least that is what I have been told by retailers.
          Sent from my iPhone

  5. I grabbed 3 copies. They look like they are already up a few bucks on the Bay. It’s a tough 9.8 with that black border. It’s a decent read too

    1. Yeah, it was definitely slim pickings for me too. I set aside so many with some type of damage, it was either creases along the spines or scuff marks. I picked up 4 myself, the best 4 I could find.

      1. I have 4 in hand with 3 more coming in the mail. This one may be a slow heater.
        However, that full page face reveal of Deadpool 2099 shows that they might actually take the character places.
        Selling for $7.99-9.99 on EBay right now. Not immediate heat, but I have faith in this issue.

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